American business magnate and philanthropist, Bill Gates, has on Thursday said it could take as long as two years or at least nine months before a vaccine can be fully developed to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.
Gates stated that as of April 9, 115 different COVID-19 potential vaccines were being developed globally, Premium Times reports.
The co-founder of Microsoft Corporation said although scientists across the globe are in a frantic race against time to get a suitable vaccine to halt the death toll created by COVID-19, safety and efficacy are the two most important considerations.
Gates, who revealed this in his regular publication, The GatesNotes, The Insider Edition, also highlighted some of the global processes needed to fast-track the process of getting a competent vaccine to save billions of lives across the globe.
He added that;
Anthony Fauci has said he thinks it’ll take around eighteen months to develop a coronavirus vaccine. I agree with him, though it could be as little as 9 months or as long as two years.
Anthony Fauci is the director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and is regarded as America’s most trusted and respected voice in the fight against the ravaging pandemic.
Gates noted that although eighteen months might sound like a long time, this would be the fastest period scientists have created a new vaccine.
He stressed that;
Development usually takes around five years. Once you pick a disease to target, you have to create the vaccine and test it on animals. Then you begin testing for safety and efficacy in humans.
Safety and efficacy are the two most important goals for every vaccine. Safety is exactly what it sounds like: is the vaccine safe to give to people? Some minor side effects (like a mild fever or injection site pain) can be acceptable, but you don’t want to inoculate people with something that makes them sick.
Gates added that;
Efficacy measures how well the vaccine protects you from getting sick. Although you’d ideally want a vaccine to have 100 per cent efficacy, many don’t. For example, this year’s flu vaccine is around 45 per cent effective.
He expressed that;
One of the questions I get asked the most these days is when the world will be able to go back to the way things were in December before the coronavirus pandemic. My answer is always the same: when we have an almost perfect drug to treat COVID-19, or when almost every person on the planet has been vaccinated against coronavirus.
However, according to serial entrepreneur, the former is unlikely to happen anytime soon because;
We’d need a miracle treatment that was at least 95 per cent effective to stop the outbreak. Most of the drug candidates right now are nowhere near that powerful. They could save a lot of lives, but they aren’t enough…”
Regarding the 115 different COVID-19 potential vaccines that are being developed, Gates stated that;
I think that eight to ten of those look particularly promising. Our foundation is going to keep an eye on all the others to see if we missed any that have some positive characteristics, though.
Gates explained that there are three phases any vaccine being produced has to go through for safety and efficacy.
He explained that;
Phase one is the safety trial. A small group of healthy volunteers gets the vaccine candidate. You try out different dosages to create the strongest immune response at the lowest effective dose without serious side effects. Once you’ve settled on a formula.
Phase two, tells you how well the vaccine works in the people who are intended to get it. This time, hundreds of people get the vaccine. This cohort should include people of different ages and health statuses.
Then, in phase three, you give it to thousands of people. This is usually the longest phase, because it occurs in what’s called ‘natural disease conditions. You introduce it to a large group of people who are likely already at the risk of infection by the target pathogen, and then wait and see if the vaccine reduces how many people get sick.
After the vaccine passes all three trial phases, Gates stated that;
You start building the factories to manufacture it, and it gets submitted to the WHO and various government agencies for approval.”
‘Compressing process’
The philanthropist, however, said in view of the urgency of getting a vaccine to tackle COVID-19, global leaders can actually speed up the process to get the lifesaving medication to over 7 billion of world population.
He said to speed up the process, vaccine developers have to compress the timeline, adding that;
Fortunately, compressing the trial timeline isn’t the only way to take a process that usually takes five years and get it done in 18 months. Another way we’re going to do that is by testing lots of different approaches at the same time.
Coronavirus has continued its rapid spread across the globe, with more than three million confirmed cases in 185 nations and over 200, 000 fatalities.
