Business

Explainer: How Nigeria’s $3.23bn non-oil export surge could reshape the economy

Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose sharply to $3.225 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a 19.59% increase from the $2.696 billion recorded during the same period last year, according to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC).

The figures, unveiled by NEPC Director-General, Nonye Ayeni during the presentation of the H1 2025 Non-Oil Export Performance Report in Abuja, reflect a continued push to diversify Nigeria’s revenue base away from crude oil and toward a broader, more resilient export portfolio.

Export volumes also climbed to 4.04 million metric tonnes, up from 3.83 million metric tonnes in H1 2024. In the first quarter alone, non-oil exports were valued at $1.791 billion, a 24.75% increase compared to Q1 2024, with volumes up 24.3% to 2.416 million metric tonnes.


A Broader, Higher-Value Export Basket

Ayeni noted that Nigeria exported 236 distinct products in H1 2025, compared to 202 products a year earlier. This is a sign that the country’s export basket is widening. These ranged from agricultural commodities to manufactured goods and semi-processed items, with a notable shift toward higher-value semi-manufactured exports.

“It is pertinent to state that the non-oil export of Nigerian products is gradually diversifying from traditional agriculture exports to semi-manufactured products,” Ayeni said.

Cocoa beans retained the top spot, accounting for 34.88% of total export value, up from 23.18% in H1 2024. Urea/fertiliser ranked second, making up 17.65% of total export value, compared to 13.78% a year earlier.


What This Means for Commerce and the Economy

The steady rise in non-oil exports  has deep implications for Nigeria’s economic stability and global trade positioning:

  • Reduced Vulnerability to Oil Price Shocks
    With oil prices often fluctuating unpredictably, a stronger non-oil export sector acts as a buffer, helping the economy stay afloat when crude revenues dip.
  • Stronger Currency Support
    Increased export earnings mean higher foreign exchange inflows, which can ease pressure on the naira and support currency stability.
  • Job Creation Through Value Addition
    The shift toward semi-manufactured and processed goods means more work for local industries, from processing plants to packaging facilities, creating jobs across the value chain.
  • Market Expansion via AfCFTA
    The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement is already paying dividends by lowering trade barriers, making Nigerian goods more competitive in emerging African markets.
  • Stimulus for MSMEs
    Many of the new export items come from small and medium-sized businesses, giving local entrepreneurs a direct pathway to international markets.

The NEPC’s Role in Sustaining the Growth

Ayeni attributed the sector’s gains to a mix of policy reforms and strategic interventions, including:

  • Capacity building on product quality and standards
  • Training in export documentation and certifications
  • Encouraging value addition before shipment to boost earnings
  • Strengthening linkages with target markets such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, and African countries.

She stressed that these efforts are in line with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, adding:

“Our goal is to keep building the capacity of Nigerian exporters, open up more markets, and increase both the value and volume of our non-oil exports. This is how we can build a more resilient, competitive economy.”


Bottom line: The $3.225 billion milestone is a signal that Nigeria’s economic diversification strategy is slowly but steadily paying off. If sustained, it could mean a future where the country’s economic fortunes are no longer tied to the ebb and flow of global crude oil prices, but rather anchored in a robust, multi-sector export economy.

 

Mayowa

Mayowa

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