The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98 percent year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2025, marking a slight improvement over the 3.86 percent growth recorded in Q3 2024.

Why This Matters

GDP growth is one of the most important indicators of economic health. Real GDP measures the value of goods and services produced, adjusted for inflation, while nominal GDP reflects the raw value without inflation adjustments.

According to the NBS, Nigeria’s nominal GDP stood at ₦113.58 trillion in Q3 2025, compared to ₦96.16 trillion in Q3 2024, representing a nominal growth of 18.12 percent.

Sector Breakdown

• Agriculture:
  • Grew by 3.79%, up from 2.55% in Q3 2024.
  • Crop production was the main driver.
• Industry:
  • Expanded by 3.77%, compared to 2.78% last year.
• Services:
  • Grew by 4.15%, though slightly lower than 4.97% in Q3 2024.
  • Still the largest contributor, accounting for 53.02% of GDP.

Oil Sector Performance

• Average daily oil production rose to 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q3 2025.
• This was higher than 1.47 mbpd in Q3 2024, but slightly below 1.68 mbpd in Q2 2025.
• Oil contributed 5.84% to real GDP, up from 5.66% in Q3 2024.
• However, quarter-on-quarter growth fell sharply, recording -5.53% compared to Q2 2025.

Non-Oil Sector

• Grew by 3.91% in real terms, higher than 3.79% in Q3 2024 and 3.64% in Q2 2025.
• Key drivers included:
  • Agriculture (crop production)
  • Telecommunications
  • Real estate
  • Financial institutions
  • Trade
  • Construction
  • Manufacturing
• Contributed 96.56% of GDP, underscoring Nigeria’s reliance on non-oil activities despite oil’s strategic importance.

The NBS explained that the GDP figures were rebased using 2019 as the new base year, aligning quarterly estimates with updated annual benchmarks. This rebasing provides a more accurate reflection of Nigeria’s current economic structure.

The modest uptick in growth suggests resilience in agriculture and industry, while the oil sector continues to face volatility. Analysts note that sustaining growth will depend on stabilising oil output, boosting productivity in non-oil sectors, and managing inflationary pressures.

Bottom Line: Nigeria’s economy is expanding, but the growth remains fragile. Agriculture and non-oil sectors are driving momentum, while oil output continues to fluctuate. With GDP rebased to 2019, the new figures provide a clearer picture of where Nigeria’s strengths and vulnerabilities lie.